Development of decision support based on Fuzzy logic at ELMŰ and ÉMÁSZ
24. 3. 2010.

Geometria gives high priority to the adaptation and the research of the methods promoting the efficient network asset management and its supporting systems. The development and the introduction of the decision supporting system based on Fuzzy logic among the electrical distribution licensees, performed by Geometria is one of the proofs of that. The system gives an opportunity to the transparent, parameterizable evaluation of the network elements.

According to the evaluation of the network elements the hierarchy of the elements and also the effect of the network intervention for the given element can be determined, and based on these the plan of the network interventions (reconstruction, maintenance) can be compiled.

In 2009 Geometria has received an assignment from ELMÛ Network Distribution Ltd. to improve the decision supporting system based on Fuzzy logic which had been developed previously in the frame of a GVOP project. In the project on the one hand the already existing medium voltage cable network model should have been modified according to the customer’s demands, and on the other hand the rules describing the medium-voltage overhead cable model should have been developed.

The base of the decision supporting system is the Fuzzy logic which is a scientifically proven and developed procedure. The big advantage of the model is that it can be applied in deficient data environment specifically efficiently, as well as the different non-linear relationships – which can not be expressed or difficult to express in an analogue way or can be expressed only in implicit way- can be described with visible language rules. When developing the concrete model the experiences and the knowledge of the experts should be structurally corresponded with these language rules. The modification and the tuning of the created rules with introducing new rules and modifying the weight of the existing ones, are very simple for even the users compared to the modification of the complex function descriptions.

The evaluation of both projects happens basically in a risk base, taking into consideration the probability and the consequences of the outage. In the overhead cable model it is a novelty that the serial neighboring and the parallel elements are taken into the examination. In the case of overhead cable the model has been developed almost simultaneously with the document regulating the status survey, thus the model will be able immediately to evaluate this information as well.

The Fuzzy logic can be applied not only in the case of electrical utilities, its advantageous features mentioned before are valid in all branches. Our goal with the decision supporting system based on the Fuzzy logic is to present an effective method for our customers even in a deficient data environment and an useful application for applying experiences to complete the network intervention-planning.